There is a fast lane and there is a parking lot, and the "average" you see quoted is just those two blended together. This page computes both, live from the CRMLS feed, every time it loads. No stale screenshots, no last quarter's report.
The split, in the last 30 days of closings
sellers who closed OVER asking
sellers who closed under asking
28.9% of Santa Clarita sellers closed over their asking price this month, with a median premium of $12,698. 45.9% closed under, giving back a median of $19,000. Same valley, same month. The difference was almost entirely the first number on the sign: 37.6% of this month's closings had to cut from their original list price before finding their buyer.
Days on market measures listing date to accepted contract. Escrow adds roughly 3 to 5 weeks on top for a financed buyer. All figures recompute from closed MLS records each time this page loads.
Question 1: did the buyers leave, or is the average lying?
Before touching your price, check the demand gauges. Homes already in contract behind the actives, the share of closings going over asking, and months of inventory: active listings divided by last month's closings. Under 4 months leans seller, 4 to 6 is balanced, over 6 leans buyer. The valley sits at 4.1 months right now, with 292 homes in contract behind 842 actives. When these gauges read healthy while the average days on market climbs, buyers did not leave. A stuck segment is dragging the average, and that is a competition problem, not a market problem.
Question 2: what changed in the competitive set?
Bucket every active listing by time on market and the split shows itself. Fresh means on the market 30 days or less. Stuck means more than 60. When the stuck bucket's median asking price runs well above the fresh bucket's, that price band, not the city, is the parking lot. Where a property type dominates the stuck bucket, that segment is the drag. This table recomputes on every load:
| City | For sale | In contract | Months of inventory | Fresh (≤30d) | Stuck (60d+) | Fresh median ask | Stuck median ask | Stuck bucket leans |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 252 | 85 | 3.8 | 126 | 85 | $739,945 | $750,000 | single family homes |
| Canyon Country | 183 | 66 | 4.4 | 77 | 62 | $730,000 | $654,000 | single family homes |
| Saugus | 109 | 49 | 2.6 | 58 | 25 | $818,250 | $799,999 | single family homes |
| Newhall | 106 | 27 | 5.6 | 52 | 34 | $464,500 | $456,000 | condominiums |
| Castaic | 52 | 24 | 4 | 29 | 13 | $845,000 | $885,000 | single family homes |
| Acton | 51 | 13 | 6.4 | 25 | 20 | $950,000 | $899,500 | single family homes |
| Stevenson Ranch | 33 | 14 | 8.3 | 17 | 11 | $1,030,000 | $1,200,000 | single family homes |
| Santa Clarita | 33 | 4 | 4.7 | 18 | 9 | $849,494 | $720,000 | single family homes |
| Agua Dulce | 23 | 10 | 11.5 | 8 | 10 | $1,192,500 | $1,142,000 | single family homes |
Buckets under 5 listings report their count but suppress medians. A median over a handful of homes is an anecdote wearing a statistic's clothes.
The outside forces working on your timeline
New construction competes on payment, not price. Active builder communities in and around the valley discount the mortgage rate through their lenders. A resale seller whose home competes with a model home has to answer the builder's monthly payment, not the sticker. Insurance now has a calendar. California FAIR Plan rates were overhauled effective October 15, 2026, and escrows increasingly turn on whether the buyer can place coverage. Near brush, get an insurance quote at listing and hand it to buyers up front. Special assessments are payments too. Real example, from the builder's own published FAQ (checked August 2026): Williams Ranch in Castaic discloses an anticipated total tax rate, Mello-Roos included, of approximately 1.51 percent, plus estimated HOA dues of $384 a month at build-out. On a $1,000,000 purchase that is roughly $15,100 a year in property taxes, about $340 a month more than a comparable Castaic resale taxed near the typical 1.1 percent, and the tax-plus-HOA gap runs in the neighborhood of $725 a month. At recent rates that carries roughly $110,000 of loan, comparable monthly value to the builder's advertised rate buydown. A no-Mello-Roos, low-HOA resale seller who prices to that math has largely neutralized the builder's headline advantage, and it belongs in the first line of the marketing, not the fine print. Rate lock-in works for you. Most California owners hold a mortgage well below today's rates and stay put, which keeps your competition thinner than the headlines suggest.
What this means if you are selling
The market grades your price in public, inside about 3 weeks. Price to the current closed comps and the data above says the market rewards it quickly, often over asking. Price to a neighbor's 2022 brag and the eventual buyer discounts you harder every week you sit. Before you list, know which lane your specific segment is in: the table above tells you whether your city's stuck bucket is your price band, your property type, or somebody else's problem.
Want the lane check done on your actual house?
Connor runs this same diagnostic against your street, your tract, and your competition, with the current closed comps on the table. No pressure, just the numbers.
Book a time with Connor How selling here worksOr text HOUSE to (661) 400-1720 for the daily numbers on your phone.
Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as of September 18, 2026. This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties you may be interested in purchasing. Display of MLS data is usually deemed reliable but is NOT guaranteed accurate by the MLS. Buyers are responsible for verifying the accuracy of all information and should investigate the data themselves or retain appropriate professionals.