The Santa Clarita housing market is not one market. Current data shows very different conditions for single-family homes, condominiums, and townhomes while a top-tier 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits near 7.07 percent. This episode answers 12 questions for local buyers and sellers using a CRMLS-backed feed and current economic sources instead of national drama.

TL;DR

Single-family homes show 3.3 months of supply, condos 8.5 months, and townhomes 4.6 months. The 90-day valley median remained flat at $800,000 even though 46.8 percent of recent closings sold under asking. Property type, city, price, condition, and financing change the answer. Buyers should use current payment figures and local inventory. Sellers should compare their home with nearby closings and active competition before changing course.

Why 7.07 percent changes the conversation

Mortgage News Daily reported a top-tier 30-year fixed rate of 7.07 percent on September 10. On a $640,000 loan, every tenth of a percentage point changes principal and interest by roughly $43 per month.

That does not tell a buyer to purchase or wait. It tells the buyer what to measure. A prediction about the next Federal Reserve move is not a financing plan. Compare the payment available now, the alternatives, and the personal timeline in front of you.

The episode calls the latest inflation pressure the "pump tax." The August CPI report showed gasoline up 27.4 percent over 12 months and energy up 16.3 percent, while shelter rose 3.0 percent. Fuel does not directly price a Santa Clarita house, but inflation expectations can move bonds, and mortgage rates respond to the bond market.

One valley, three different supply stories

Single-family homes currently sit at 3.3 months of supply, which is a seller's market under this show's criteria. Condos are at 8.5 months, a buyer's market. Townhomes sit between them at 4.6 months.

A house and a condo a mile apart can therefore live in opposite markets on the same morning. Use the property type and price band, not a valley-wide headline.

Attached homes show one of the clearest negotiating windows. The feed counted 213 active condos against 25 condo closings in the prior 30 days. Newhall alone showed 54 active condos and two closings, or 27 months of supply.

That does not make every condo a bargain. A prepared buyer still needs to investigate the building's reserves, insurance, condition, HOA documents, and total monthly payment.

Is 40 days on market a problem?

Forty days is a check-in point, not a verdict. Homes that closed under asking in the prior 30 days took a median of 40 days. Homes closing over asking took 13 days.

That gap is information about buyer response. Review showings, feedback, competing inventory, and what actually closed nearby. A house does not go bad on a calendar, but waiting without reviewing the evidence is not a strategy.

Over 12 months, 456 of 1,316 sellers adjusted their price by a median of $30,000. Properties that required a change took a median of 63 days compared with 13 days for sellers who never adjusted. Plenty of factors influence the initial list price, but if a seller is going to review it, early evidence is worth more than late hope.

Does under asking mean the market is falling?

Not by itself. The feed showed 46.8 percent of recent closings under asking by a median of $16,999. The 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day splits were similar, while the 90-day valley median stayed at $800,000.

Flat is the useful word for that median. It is not a promise about an individual property, and it is not the same as a crash.

Cash, VA, Saugus, and Valencia

Over 12 months, cash purchases closed at 98.7 percent of list price while conventional, FHA, and VA groups closed at 100 percent. Cash can buy speed and certainty, sometimes in exchange for a price discount. It is not automatically worth more in every negotiation.

The local feed also did not support an automatic fear of VA offers. VA purchases closed at 100 percent of list in a median of 26 days, the fastest median among the reported financing groups, although VA represented only 5.4 percent of sales.

Saugus and Valencia were close on price but different on supply. Their 30-day medians were $817,500 and $820,000. Saugus was tighter at 2.5 months of supply compared with Valencia at 3.2 months. Valencia closed in a median of 22 days, while Saugus took 35.

Open-house timing this weekend

The weekend schedule showed 221 open houses, with 154 concentrated from noon to 2 PM. Visit at 11 AM or after 2 PM if you want more time to ask questions. At every stop, ask how long the property has been listed and whether the price has changed.

See the current schedule at https://santaclaritaopenhouses.com/.

Frequently asked questions

Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall?

No forecast is a financing plan. Decide using current payment options, alternatives, and your timeline.

Does 46.8 percent under asking mean prices are crashing?

No. The share was similar across several windows and the 90-day valley median was flat at $800,000.

Should a seller cut the price after 40 days?

Review showings, feedback, nearby closings, and active competition before deciding. The answer is property-specific.

Is cash automatically better than VA or conventional financing?

No. Cash may offer speed and certainty, but the recent local data showed conventional, FHA, and VA groups closing at 100 percent of list.

Market data changes. Verify listings, rates, lending terms, HOA documents, insurance, and property facts before acting. This is general information, not lending, legal, tax, or individualized real estate advice.

Connor MacIvor, REALTOR, CalDRE #01238257, SYNC Brokerage.

Sources: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed and https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm.

The live market board behind these 12 answers

There are 22 open house signs going into the ground in this valley today, and 118 more going out tomorrow morning, and the people loading those signs into the truck right now do not know that the thing which decides what their buyers can afford already happened. It happened at 5:30 this morning, before anybody had coffee. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published a number, and that number moved money, and the money moved the rate, and the rate is what somebody standing in a living room on Saturday afternoon is actually shopping with.

Hold a number for me. 27.4. I am going to leave it sitting right there and come back for it in about 8 minutes, and when I do, I think it changes how you hear every rate story you are going to see this weekend.

Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, whenever you happen to be tuning in.

This is the Santa Clarita Real Estate Daily Show, and everything I am about to read you came off SantaClaritaOpenHouses.com at 6:01 this morning, straight out of CRMLS, the same feed every agent in this valley is looking at right now. Friday, September 11, 2026.

Start with the number that hurts. Mortgage News Daily has the top tier 30 year fixed at 7.07 percent as of yesterday. It was 6.97 the day before that and 6.89 the day before that. 3 days, 18 hundredths of a point. That is the highest reading they have recorded since May 21, 2025.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey, a different instrument that comes out on Thursdays, printed 6.76 percent yesterday, up from 6.71. A year ago that same survey said 6.35.

Neither one is wrong. Mortgage News Daily prices off the bond market every day. Freddie Mac averages a week of lender quotes. When rates move fast the daily number moves first and the weekly number catches up, which is exactly what you are watching happen right now.

Here is the board. 834 active listings across the Santa Clarita Valley. 99 took an offer and are still accepting backups. 196 are in escrow. 7 are coming soon. 34 closed in the last 7 days and 201 closed in the last 30.

Against last Friday that is 13 more active, 6 more in escrow, and 4 fewer closings in the 7 day window. Take that last one lightly. A 7 day count swings on a holiday or on when a title company records a document. One week of closings is a weather report. The 30 day number is the climate, and it is 201.

Divide 834 by 201 and you get 4.1 months of supply. Under 4 is a seller's market, 4 to 6 is balanced, over 6 is a buyer's market. So the valley headline is balanced, and in a few minutes I will show you it describes almost nobody actually in this market.

27.4.

That is the percentage the gasoline index rose over the 12 months ending in August, inside the Consumer Price Index the government published at 5:30 this morning. Gasoline, up 27.4 percent in a year, and up 3.9 percent in August alone. Energy overall, up 16.3 percent.

Now go find the housing line in that same report. Shelter, up 3.0 percent over 12 months.

Headline inflation came in at 3.4 percent over the year and 0.4 for the month. Core, which strips food and energy out, came in at 2.4.

So the thing pushing the number that pushes the bond market that pushes your mortgage rate is not housing. It is the pump. I am going to call that the pump tax, because that is what it is doing to you. You are paying a housing cost that got set at a gas station, and nothing about your house, your offer or your agent has any effect on it.

Buyers first this morning, because you are the ones who have to do arithmetic before Saturday.

The 30 day median sale price in this valley is 800,000 dollars, at 417 dollars a square foot, and the median home that closed took 32 days. Put 20 percent down on 800,000 and you are financing 640,000. At 7.07 percent on a 30 year fixed, principal and interest runs about 4,288 dollars a month, before taxes, before insurance, before anybody's association dues.

That same loan at 6.35 percent, where the weekly survey sat a year ago, is about 3,982. The difference is 306 dollars a month and 3,669 a year, for the identical house on the identical street.

Or turn it around, which is the version that helps you shop. To get back to that 3,982 dollar payment at today's rate, you are buying about 743,000 instead of 800,000. The rate took 57,000 dollars of house off your list and nobody lowered a price to do it.

Here is the part that is genuinely good news for some of you, and it is buried underneath that 4.1 month headline.

Break the valley apart by property type. 492 single family homes active, 150 closed in 30 days. That is 3.3 months. Seller's market.

213 condominiums active, 25 closed. That is 8.5 months. Buyer's market, and not a close call.

111 townhomes against 24 closings, 4.6 months, genuinely balanced.

So a house and a condo a mile apart are living in opposite markets this morning, and the 4.1 month headline describes neither one.

One wrinkle. The condominiums that actually closed last month closed in 22 days, faster than the houses at 29. The attached market is not slow, it is split. The units priced against the other 212 move quickly and the rest become part of that 8.5.

The condo median was 514,999 dollars. Finance 412,000 at today's rate and you are near 2,760 a month, against 4,677 for the median house at 872,500. That is 1,916 dollars a month of daylight between 2 things people both call buying a home.

Let me put the other side of the scale down, because I have been handing you heavy numbers and the picture is not coming apart.

The valley median over the last 90 days went from 800,000 dollars to 800,000 dollars. Zero percent. Flat is the right word and flat is not a crash.

34 homes closed in the last 7 days and the median one took 19 days.

Valencia's price per square foot over 90 days went from 417 to 433, up 3.8 percent. Condominium price per foot valley wide went from 405 to 429, up 5.9 percent. Those are both up.

And Saugus, SAW-gus, is sitting on 107 active against 42 closings in 30 days. 2.5 months of supply, the tightest city on this board by a wide margin, and it is not behaving like a market in any trouble at all.

Sellers, this next part is yours.

Of the 190 homes that closed in this valley in the last 30 days, 56 sold over asking, 45 sold right at asking, and 89 sold under. That is 29.5 percent over, 23.7 at, 46.8 under. The median amount over was 11,000 dollars. The median under was 16,999.

Across 90 and 180 days the split is nearly identical, so this is not this week's weather. It has been the shape of this valley all year.

The timing split is the part I want you to hear. The homes that sold over asking took 13 days. The ones that sold under took 40.

That is not a grade on anybody. Days on market is a check in point, not a verdict. A house does not go bad on a calendar. What 40 days tells you is that the buyers shopping your price band this summer looked and chose something else, and that is a conversation with your agent about showings, feedback, and what actually closed near you. Holding is a legitimate answer. Adjusting is a legitimate answer. Both belong to you.

Over a full 12 months, 1,316 sellers closed in this valley and 456 of them adjusted the price somewhere along the way. That is 34.7 percent, about 1 in 3. The median adjustment was 30,000 dollars, which is 4 percent.

Those sellers were on the market a median of 63 days. The sellers who never touched the price were on 13.

I want to be careful with that, because it is the kind of number people pick up and use to scold somebody. I am not going to read it that way. It is not evidence anybody did anything wrong, and plenty of things set a starting number besides an opinion. A payoff amount sets it. A relocation date sets it. An estate sets it.

What it is useful for is one decision. If you are going to check in on your price at all, this feed says the check in is worth more early than late.

In the last 7 days across the 9 cities this feed tracks, 87 listings lowered a price for a combined 2,004,417 dollars. 5 raised one. 18 came back on the market.

Valencia led with 26 reductions worth 696,740 dollars. Canyon Country had 21 worth 311,011. Saugus 15 worth 303,190.

And 255 of the 834 active listings in this valley have been sitting longer than 60 days. That is 31 percent, roughly 1 in 3 signs you drive past. Agua Dulce, AH-gwah DUL-say, runs the highest share at 42 percent. Castaic, kas-TAKE, is the cleanest board at 20.

If you are a buyer, that 31 percent is your shopping list. Those sellers have lived through 2 months of this and have real information about their own situation that they did not have in July.

Who is actually buying here, measured over 12 months and 2,533 closed sales.

Conventional financing, 59.8 percent, 1,515 sales, median close 825,000 dollars, 29 days.

FHA, 12.3 percent, 311 sales, median close 745,000, 37 days. The slowest group on the board, and how a lot of first time buyers get in the door.

Cash, 10.8 percent, 273 sales, 32 days, and cash closed at 98.7 percent of list while every other group closed at 100. Cash buys a discount and the discount is about 1.3 percent. That is the entire trade, and now both sides of a negotiation know the number.

VA, 5.4 percent, 137 sales, 26 days, 100 percent of list. The fastest and cleanest group on this board and also the smallest. If a VA offer lands on your table this weekend, the 12 month record here says those closed at full list in 26 days.

City for today is Newhall.

105 active, 16 closed in 30 days, 6.6 months of supply, and a 30 day median of 658,500 dollars at 417 a foot in 32 days. The lowest median of any city on this board.

But Newhall is not one market, it is 2. 39 single family homes active against 10 closings. That is 3.9 months, essentially a seller's market.

54 condominiums active against 2 closings in 30 days. That is 27 months of supply.

54 units sitting, 2 moving. If you own one, the comparison that matters is not the valley and not even Newhall, it is the other 53 units competing directly with you.

And if you are a buyer in the 400s who has been told there is nothing out there, there are 54 things out there in one city and almost nobody is bidding against you.

One piece of history, because it explains why this feels the way it feels.

On the 10 year page at SantaClaritaOpenHouses.com, the 2025 medians measured against 2017 look like this. Canyon Country up 57 percent to 710,000 dollars. Newhall up 55 to 575,000. Valencia up 54 to 785,000. Saugus up 51 to 800,000. Castaic up 50 to 785,000. Stevenson Ranch up 41 to 888,777.

Canyon Country gained more than any other city in this valley across those 8 years.

And over the last 90 days Canyon Country's price per square foot went from 436 dollars to 390. Down 10.6 percent, the steepest move on the board, while Valencia went the other way.

The thing that climbs fastest is usually the thing that moves first in both directions. That is not a warning and it is not a forecast. It is a pattern.

Open houses. 22 today, running 11 AM to 4 PM. 118 tomorrow. 103 Sunday. 221 across the weekend.

Valencia has 94 of them. Saugus 46. Canyon Country 42. Newhall 22. Castaic 18. Stevenson Ranch 10. Acton 6. Agua Dulce 2.

And 154 of those sit inside the 12 to 2 PM window. So if you want an agent who can actually stop and talk to you instead of managing a room, go at 11 or go after 2. That is a scheduling fact, not an opinion, and it is free.

One more thing off the board. There are 7 coming soon listings in this entire valley, 5 of them in Valencia. That is a rounding error, and it tells you the next 2 weeks of new inventory is thin.

So what do you do with all of that if you are buying this weekend. 3 things, and none require you to guess where rates are headed.

One. Get the quote today, not in 2 weeks. 7.07 came from 6.89 in 3 days, and on a 640,000 dollar loan every tenth of a point is about 43 dollars a month. A lock is not a prediction, it is a decision to stop being exposed.

Two. Shop the type, not just the town. The leverage is in the attached product today and it may not be there in the spring.

Three. Ask the listing agent one question at every open house: how many days, and has the price moved. 87 of them moved in the last 7 days. That answer tells you more than the entire flyer on the counter.

Here is what people actually typed into the site this week. Whether now is a good time to sell. What their home is worth. What sold in their neighborhood. Bridgeport Valencia values. Saugus versus Valencia prices. Canyon Country coming soon listings.

Connor MacIvor, REALTOR, CalDRE #01238257, SYNC Brokerage. If your home is currently listed for sale, this is not a solicitation. Market information changes. Verify current listings, loan terms, HOA documents, insurance, legal, tax, and property facts before acting.